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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 3588 at 10:36, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 3588 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 10:36 TVC 13:00 12% 3% 1.2% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic 3h 12m Boston BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → TVC 15:31AA 5628 · flown by PSA 8h 01m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → TVC 11:39AA 5433 · flown by PSA 6h 39m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 2h 20m Chicago ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57AA 4190 · flown by Envoy 6h 27m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800 1h 45m Chicago ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807 5h 58m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 2h 51m Chicago ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:45 → TVC 14:26UA 1887 7h 56m 93% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON