tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 1401 at 09:55, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 1401 Allegiant Flight history → EWR 09:55 TYS 11:50 15% 5% 0.7% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 10m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 5h 38m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800 1h 30m Chicago ORD 10:30 → TYS 13:19UA 6037 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 18m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → EWR 10:40 → ORD 12:25AA 3170 2h 48m Chicago ORD 15:13 → TYS 18:02AA 3783 · flown by Envoy 7h 22m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 1h 00m Chicago ORD 08:15 → TYS 11:05AA 6445 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053 3h 02m Chicago ORD 17:55 → TYS 20:44UA 2827 7h 34m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 45m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430 59m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 4h 53m 73% 58%
AmericanDetails → EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811 1h 08m Charlotte CLT 22:40 → TYS 23:51AA 5511 · flown by PSA 4h 22m 64% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON