Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1072 EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2168 EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1072 Delta Flight history →	EYW 07:50	ATL 09:54	12%	6%	1.3%	90%
DL 1281 Delta Flight history →	EYW 11:56	ATL 14:03	17%	6%	1.9%	89%
DL 1472 Delta Flight history →	EYW 14:24	ATL 16:31	19%	7%	2.5%	84%
DL 2168 Delta Flight history →	EYW 18:18	ATL 20:32	19%	8%	7.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON