Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Miami, leaving 13:47, is the safest bet: 31% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4416 American flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 12:18	DCA 15:18	16%	6%	2.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	7h 06m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 23m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 41m	94%	69%
American Details →	EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	1h 22m Miami	MIA 13:42 → DCA 16:26AA 3310	4h 58m	100%	68%
American Details →	EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25AA 1826	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00AA 2386	6h 59m	98%	68%
American Details →	EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12AA 3519 · flown by Envoy	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	7h 12m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 34m	89%	65%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → DFW 16:33AA 305	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	8h 38m	87%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic	50m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	6h 54m	65%	48%
American Details →	EYW 13:47 → MIA 14:40AA 3518 · flown by Envoy	50m Miami	MIA 15:30 → DCA 18:13AA 3138	4h 26m	50%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON