tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 305 at 14:21, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 305 American Flight history → EYW 14:21 DFW 16:33 33% 13% 2.4% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EYW 12:18 → DCA 15:18AA 4416 · flown by Republic 1h 53m Washington DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414 8h 23m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 5h 54m 91% 76%
DeltaDetails → EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → DFW 20:18DL 436 6h 54m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 6h 55m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25AA 1826 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409 7h 59m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12AA 3519 · flown by Envoy 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271 8h 48m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374 6h 31m 92% 68%
AmericanDetails → EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20AA 3515 · flown by Envoy 2h 09m Miami MIA 14:29 → DFW 16:51AA 2762 6h 23m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic 55m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 7h 36m 65% 49%
AmericanDetails → EYW 13:47 → MIA 14:40AA 3518 · flown by Envoy 50m Miami MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:50AA 1199 5h 03m 50% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON