Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1513 at 14:26, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1513 United Flight history →	EYW 14:26	EWR 17:37	30%	17%	2.9%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 26m	95%	75%
United Details →	EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	8h 53m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	8h 05m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 40m	94%	65%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 58m	90%	64%
American Details →	EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Miami	MIA 13:31 → EWR 16:39AA 1823	5h 11m	93%	62%
American Details →	EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25AA 1826	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30AA 1071	7h 29m	98%	61%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → DFW 16:33AA 305	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:19 → EWR 22:59AA 2999	8h 38m	83%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12AA 3519 · flown by Envoy	54m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	5h 31m	71%	40%
American Details →	EYW 16:21 → ORD 19:17AA 3996 · flown by Envoy	52m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549	7h 09m	52%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON