Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3515 at 11:28 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3515 EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3517 EYW 19:40 → MIA 20:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3515 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 11:28	MIA 12:20	18%	6%	3.7%	97%worse than usual
AA 3518 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 13:47	MIA 14:40	27%	9%	4.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 3517 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 19:40	MIA 20:30	32%	10%	9.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON