Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3147 at 17:34, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3147 American Flight history →	EYW 17:34	PHL 20:40	32%	16%	6.7%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 12m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 56m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 41m	96%	72%
United Details →	EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	8h 57m	94%	72%
American Details →	EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25AA 1826	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 18:12 → PHL 20:12AA 2879	7h 11m	98%	72%
American Details →	EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12AA 3519 · flown by Envoy	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	7h 41m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 16m	92%	70%
American Details →	EYW 11:28 → MIA 12:20AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	2h 40m Miami	MIA 15:00 → PHL 17:57AA 797	6h 29m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → DFW 16:33AA 305	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → PHL 22:17AA 991	7h 56m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON