Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 494 at 01:00, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 494 United Flight history →	FAI 01:00	DEN 08:09	18%	4%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FAI 00:39 → PDX 05:30AS 1520	1h 50m Portland	PDX 07:20 → DEN 11:03AS 401	8h 24m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	FAI 01:35 → SEA 06:16DL 2408	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	8h 27m	95%	80%
Alaska Details →	FAI 20:41 → ANC 21:44AS 2099 · flown by Horizon	1h 32m Anchorage	ANC 23:16 → DEN 06:34 +1AS 752	7h 53m	90%	79%
Alaska Details →	FAI 00:19 → SEA 05:00AS 1509	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 08:04 → DEN 11:56AS 375	9h 37m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	FAI 12:11 → SEA 16:56AS 1839	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 20:11 → DEN 23:59AS 642	9h 48m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	FAI 08:00 → SEA 12:48AS 275	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 16:26 → DEN 20:10AS 602	10h 10m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	8h 07m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON