Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1055 at 21:59, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1055 Delta Flight history →	FAI 21:59	MSP 06:11	22%	8%	0.9%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FAI 01:00 → DEN 08:09UA 494	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:35 → MSP 12:34UA 397	8h 34m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	FAI 17:15 → ANC 18:18AS 2102 · flown by Horizon	3h 34m Anchorage	ANC 21:52 → MSP 06:18 +1AS 1540	10h 03m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	FAI 01:35 → SEA 06:16DL 2408	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536	9h 49m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	FAI 00:19 → SEA 05:00AS 1509	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	10h 38m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	FAI 12:11 → SEA 16:56AS 1839	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:59AS 386	8h 48m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19AS 509	8h 48m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FAI 08:00 → SEA 12:48AS 275	50m Seattle	SEA 13:38 → MSP 19:00AS 527	8h 00m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON