Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 00:19, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 28% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1640 United Flight history →	FAI 20:45	ORD 05:42	20%	6%	1.3%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FAI 01:00 → DEN 08:09UA 494	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	9h 15m	96%	85%
Alaska Details →	FAI 00:39 → PDX 05:30AS 1520	1h 30m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	9h 34m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	FAI 00:19 → SEA 05:00AS 1509	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:03AS 578	8h 44m	86%	77%
Delta Details →	FAI 01:35 → SEA 06:16DL 2408	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 07:20 → ORD 13:28DL 2055	8h 53m	84%	72%
Alaska Details →	FAI 17:15 → ANC 18:18AS 2102 · flown by Horizon	3h 06m Anchorage	ANC 21:24 → ORD 06:40 +1AS 1724	10h 25m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	FAI 20:41 → ANC 21:44AS 2099 · flown by Horizon	1h 37m Anchorage	ANC 23:21 → ORD 08:35 +1AS 1543	8h 54m	91%	69%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 11:29 → ORD 17:38AS 346	9h 07m	94%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FAI 12:11 → SEA 16:56AS 1839	52m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	8h 48m	28%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON