Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 12:11, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1520 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 00:39	PDX 05:30	13%	3%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FAI 05:00 → ANC 06:04AS 2060 · flown by Horizon	3h 06m Anchorage	ANC 09:10 → PDX 13:48AS 1567	7h 48m	100%	88%
Alaska Details →	FAI 00:19 → SEA 05:00AS 1509	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon	6h 18m	91%	87%
Alaska Details →	FAI 07:01 → ANC 08:11AS 1339	3h 43m Anchorage	ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33AS 267	8h 32m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	FAI 12:11 → SEA 16:56AS 1839	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	8h 11m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	FAI 01:35 → SEA 06:16DL 2408	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → PDX 10:35DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	FAI 15:53 → SEA 20:36AS 1508	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	7h 29m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	3h 33m Seattle	SEA 13:45 → PDX 14:48AS 3204 · flown by SkyWest	8h 17m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	FAI 13:34 → ANC 14:41AS 1415	1h 28m Anchorage	ANC 16:09 → PDX 20:48AS 1609	6h 14m	90%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FAI 15:53 → SEA 20:36AS 1508	52m Seattle	SEA 21:28 → PDX 22:25AS 498	5h 32m	58%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON