Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 1509 at 00:19 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 1509 FAI 00:19 → SEA 05:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1508 FAI 15:53 → SEA 20:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1509 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 00:19	SEA 05:00	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 275 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 08:00	SEA 12:48	15%	4%	0.8%	96%worse than usual
DL 2408 Delta Flight history →	FAI 01:35	SEA 06:16	18%	4%	0.9%	76%
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	20%	3%	0.7%	83%
AS 1839 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 12:11	SEA 16:56	24%	5%	1.1%	97%worse than usual
DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	FAI 14:37	SEA 19:27	27%	6%	1.5%	79%
AS 1508 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 15:53	SEA 20:36	30%	6%	1.3%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	FAI 17:15 → ANC 18:18AS 2102 · flown by Horizon	50m Anchorage	ANC 19:08 → SEA 23:43AS 1333	5h 28m	77%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON