Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1774 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1774 FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1423 FAT 11:35 → DEN 14:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1774 United Flight history →	FAT 05:00	DEN 08:22	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 5787 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 09:00	DEN 12:34	10%	5%	0.5%	91%
UA 5292 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:15	DEN 15:51	12%	7%	0.5%	85%
WN 1423 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 11:35	DEN 14:50	20%	4%	0.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON