Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2653 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2653 FAT 05:41 → DFW 10:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1827 FAT 15:03 → DFW 20:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2653 American Flight history →	FAT 05:41	DFW 10:59	7%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 2591 American Flight history →	FAT 06:41	DFW 12:00	10%	5%	0.9%	87%
AA 2472 American Flight history →	FAT 23:59	DFW 05:10	17%	6%	1.2%	80%
AA 1828 American Flight history →	FAT 11:05	DFW 16:29	19%	9%	0.9%	79%
AA 1827 American Flight history →	FAT 15:03	DFW 20:30	26%	11%	1.1%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON