Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1842 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1842 FAT 05:25 → LAS 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4461 FAT 16:35 → LAS 17:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1842 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 05:25	LAS 06:35	4%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 2422 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 10:35	LAS 11:55	14%	5%	0.5%	85%
G4 11 Allegiant Flight history →	FAT 14:06	LAS 15:19	26%	13%	0.7%	81%
G4 1634 Allegiant Flight history →	FAT 15:31	LAS 16:44	28%	15%	0.7%	45%
G4 35 Allegiant Flight history →	FAT 18:31	LAS 19:44	30%	15%	0.8%	61%
WN 4461 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 16:35	LAS 17:50	35%	17%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON