Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3487 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:30	PDX 09:27	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 3285 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 17:51	PDX 19:50	13%	6%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	FAT 05:25 → LAS 06:35WN 1842	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132	6h 15m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	FAT 09:48 → SLC 12:29DL 3786 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	6h 21m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	FAT 12:35 → SLC 15:21DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	5h 43m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	FAT 17:13 → SLC 19:58DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	6h 31m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	FAT 13:27 → SEA 15:43AS 384	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	6h 50m	98%	80%
United Details →	FAT 18:40 → SFO 19:44UA 5349 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	6h 10m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	FAT 06:00 → SAN 07:24AS 3402 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m San Diego	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	7h 43m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FAT 08:46 → SAN 10:12AS 3409 · flown by SkyWest	52m San Diego	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	4h 57m	64%	50%
Alaska Details →	FAT 07:00 → SEA 09:22AS 3219 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 10:14 → PDX 11:21AS 3090 · flown by SkyWest	4h 21m	51%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON