Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6275 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 6275 FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1829 FAT 19:35 → PHX 21:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6275 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:15	PHX 08:01	11%	6%	0.6%	86%
AA 1831 American Flight history →	FAT 12:56	PHX 14:37	22%	10%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 16:38	PHX 18:24	29%	16%	0.6%	67%
AA 1829 American Flight history →	FAT 19:35	PHX 21:15	31%	15%	0.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON