Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1844 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 1844 FAT 06:25 → SAN 07:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1845 FAT 17:40 → SAN 18:55 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 14% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1844 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 06:25	SAN 07:40	12%	2%	0.6%	94%
AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	15%	5%	1.0%	92%
AS 3409 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 08:46	SAN 10:12	28%	12%	1.0%	49%
AS 3388 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 16:22	SAN 17:47	30%	13%	1.1%	65%
WN 1845 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 17:40	SAN 18:55	43%	12%	0.6%	14%
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON