Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 3219 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 3219 FAT 07:00 → SEA 09:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 282 FAT 20:32 → SEA 22:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3219 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:00	SEA 09:22	13%	4%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
AS 384 Alaska Flight history →	FAT 13:27	SEA 15:43	20%	4%	0.8%	86%
AS 282 Alaska Flight history →	FAT 20:32	SEA 22:51	30%	6%	0.9%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON