Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1845 American Flight history →	FCA 12:35	DFW 17:13	18%	7%	0.8%	78%
AA 1842 American Flight history →	FCA 15:52	DFW 20:30	21%	7%	0.9%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Denver	DEN 15:42 → DFW 18:48UA 414	7h 06m	98%	79%
United Details →	FCA 12:35 → ORD 17:05UA 2362	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	9h 01m	93%	74%
United Details →	FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199	2h 03m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 26m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813	3h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	8h 01m	100%	73%
United Details →	FCA 17:28 → DEN 19:45UA 1835	1h 08m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	5h 31m	85%	70%
American Details →	FCA 14:19 → PHX 16:10AA 3852 · flown by Envoy	2h 50m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633	8h 06m	100%	68%
American Details →	FCA 13:36 → ORD 18:20AA 1833	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 20:59 → DFW 23:32AA 2600	8h 56m	92%	66%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 10:59 → DFW 17:00AS 341	9h 27m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON