tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5427 at 13:20, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5427 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → FCA 13:20 LAX 15:23 13% 6% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon 3h 48m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 7h 59m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 33m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 5h 14m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → FCA 15:33 → MSP 19:15DL 2575 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 9h 20m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon 2h 58m Seattle SEA 10:03 → LAX 12:56AS 1367 7h 23m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → FCA 18:10 → SLC 19:58DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 32m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199 2h 53m Denver DEN 19:43 → LAX 21:18UA 1262 7h 45m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon 3h 54m Seattle SEA 15:59 → LAX 18:44AS 1300 8h 16m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FCA 16:49 → ORD 21:40AA 1844 50m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 9h 03m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → FCA 13:36 → ORD 18:20AA 1833 48m Chicago ORD 19:08 → LAX 21:33AA 2364 8h 57m 57% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON