tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2575 at 15:33, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2575 Delta Flight history → FCA 15:33 MSP 19:15 12% 4% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 7h 04m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon 1h 30m Seattle SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555 6h 24m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → FCA 18:10 → SLC 19:58DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → MSP 00:34 +1DL 1173 5h 24m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 7h 32m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199 1h 55m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 6h 17m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → FCA 12:35 → ORD 17:05UA 2362 2h 52m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 8h 06m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → FCA 14:19 → PHX 16:10AA 3852 · flown by Envoy 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 18:50 → MSP 23:58AA 3142 8h 39m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon 1h 28m Seattle SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:59AS 386 6h 25m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FCA 16:49 → ORD 21:40AA 1844 56m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 74% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON