Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3852 at 14:19, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3852 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	FCA 14:19	PHX 16:10	20%	4%	1.0%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FCA 18:10 → SLC 19:58DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	6h 21m	99%	80%
United Details →	FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	6h 53m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451	6h 45m	100%	77%
United Details →	FCA 16:11 → SFO 17:50UA 5936 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347	6h 28m	93%	73%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 09:59 → PHX 13:01AS 593	7h 28m	97%	72%
United Details →	FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199	2h 42m Denver	DEN 19:32 → PHX 20:32UA 1729	6h 59m	96%	72%
United Details →	FCA 13:20 → LAX 15:23UA 5427 · flown by SkyWest	59m Los Angeles	LAX 16:22 → PHX 17:59UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest	5h 39m	86%	71%
Alaska Details →	FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	56m Portland	PDX 14:45 → PHX 17:29AS 731	5h 19m	92%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FCA 16:49 → ORD 21:40AA 1844	55m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786	8h 25m	74%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON