tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:22, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2187 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record FCA 14:10 SAN 16:16 38% 0% 0.0% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FCA 15:33 → MSP 19:15DL 2575 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 8h 57m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → FCA 18:10 → SLC 19:58DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202 6h 39m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 44m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → FCA 13:20 → LAX 15:23UA 5427 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 18:50 → SAN 19:51UA 5415 · flown by SkyWest 7h 31m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 38m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon 3h 51m Portland PDX 17:40 → SAN 20:18AS 369 8h 08m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199 2h 30m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 13m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → FCA 16:11 → SFO 17:50UA 5936 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → SAN 22:49UA 1863 7h 38m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FCA 14:19 → PHX 16:10AA 3852 · flown by Envoy 56m Phoenix PHX 17:06 → SAN 18:18AA 2466 4h 59m 65% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON