Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5936 at 16:11, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5936 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FCA 16:11	SFO 17:50	21%	16%	0.8%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FCA 13:20 → LAX 15:23UA 5427 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 17:10 → SFO 18:38UA 233	6h 18m	97%	79%
United Details →	FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	7h 48m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	3h 47m Portland	PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504	7h 20m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	FCA 18:10 → SLC 19:58DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	6h 42m	99%	71%
United Details →	FCA 17:28 → DEN 19:45UA 1835	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	6h 28m	86%	67%
Alaska Details →	FCA 14:10 → SAN 16:16AS 2187 · flown by Horizon	2h 15m San Diego	SAN 18:31 → SFO 20:12AS 3232 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	100%	64%
United Details →	FCA 14:33 → DEN 16:50UA 1199	1h 04m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 07m	84%	64%
Delta Details →	FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 50m	90%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FCA 14:19 → PHX 16:10AA 3852 · flown by Envoy	58m Phoenix	PHX 17:08 → SFO 19:09AA 1613	5h 50m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON