Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1088 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Safest bet that day B6 1088 FLL 06:00 → ALB 09:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time Riskiest B6 87 FLL 20:59 → ALB 00:07 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1088 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	ALB 09:01	7%	4%	0.8%	55%
G4 3478 Allegiant Flight history →	FLL 15:51	ALB 19:03	36%	16%	1.0%	29%
B6 87 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	ALB 00:07	36%	16%	2.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON