Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1168 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 1168 FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest B6 1798 FLL 20:55 → ATL 22:55 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1168 Delta Flight history →	FLL 05:23	ATL 07:11	4%	2%	0.9%	97%
DL 1215 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:33	ATL 08:27	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 1326 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:40	ATL 09:33	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1334 Delta Flight history →	FLL 09:56	ATL 11:48	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
B6 518 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:15	ATL 08:10	11%	4%	0.9%	83%
F9 4873 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 06:05	ATL 08:23	12%	6%	1.2%	72%
DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:04	ATL 12:54	15%	4%	0.9%	81%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	FLL 13:28	ATL 15:32	17%	6%	0.9%	78%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:08	ATL 14:00	19%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:32	ATL 17:42	20%	9%	1.0%	71%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	FLL 14:30	ATL 16:34	21%	8%	0.9%	57%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:45	ATL 21:54	21%	10%	1.9%	69%
DL 1670 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:59	ATL 23:14	22%	12%	3.4%	73%
B6 1698 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:03	ATL 11:59	24%	9%	0.9%	76%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:46	ATL 18:47	25%	10%	1.3%	61%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	FLL 18:28	ATL 20:35	26%	11%	1.4%	69%
F9 3013 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:47	ATL 23:59	41%	20%	4.8%	46%
F9 1123 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:39	ATL 20:04	46%	19%	1.7%	45%
B6 2098 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	ATL 20:43	47%	19%	2.0%	41%
B6 1798 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	ATL 22:55	48%	22%	3.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON