Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1848 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 1848 FLL 09:25 → AUS 11:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest B6 2271 FLL 20:59 → AUS 23:08 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1848 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 09:25	AUS 11:15	16%	3%	0.7%	71%
B6 2371 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:45	AUS 11:48	23%	6%	0.9%	78%
B6 1971 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:02	AUS 14:06	31%	10%	1.0%	55%
B6 2271 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	AUS 23:08	48%	18%	3.0%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON