Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4638 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4638 FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2581 FLL 20:55 → BNA 22:22 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4638 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 09:35	BNA 10:50	10%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 4029 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:45	BNA 12:00	14%	3%	0.8%	91%
WN 1850 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 12:35	BNA 13:50	21%	6%	0.7%	49%
B6 681 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	BNA 13:32	25%	11%	1.9%	57%
WN 1715 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 15:15	BNA 16:35	27%	11%	0.8%	48%
WN 1852 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:25	BNA 21:50	34%	15%	1.9%	29%
B6 2481 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	BNA 20:07	39%	21%	4.3%	68%
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	40%	20%	6.0%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON