Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–48%.

Safest bet that day B6 690 FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 270 FLL 18:35 → BOS 21:59 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 690 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	BOS 09:14	8%	3%	1.1%	93%
DL 1471 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:10	BOS 14:32	16%	7%	1.2%	75%
DL 522 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:51	BOS 00:16	31%	14%	4.3%	47%
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:37	BOS 17:56	40%	20%	1.2%	58%
B6 470 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:59	BOS 01:20	42%	21%	4.5%	63%
B6 270 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	BOS 21:59	48%	24%	2.1%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON