tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 2466 at 16:45, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 2466 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 16:45 BUF 19:48 33% 17% 2.8% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 48m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396 1h 55m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → BUF 12:05WN 762 5h 40m 96% 87%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 08:00 → BWI 10:30WN 1651 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 13:00 → BUF 14:15WN 894 6h 15m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 6h 07m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 1h 14m Detroit DTW 10:10 → BUF 11:22DL 3636 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53AA 2087 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616 5h 07m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 1h 45m Dulles IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 45m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294 3h 04m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 7h 18m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 12:04 → LGA 15:04AA 2490 46m New York LGA 15:50 → BUF 17:28AA 4378 · flown by Republic 5h 24m 68% 55%
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:33 → ORD 20:16AA 2440 1h 03m Chicago ORD 21:19 → BUF 23:59AA 403 6h 26m 65% 45%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 18:35 → JFK 21:39B6 1802 50m New York JFK 22:29 → BUF 00:13 +1B6 102 5h 38m 48% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON