Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 396 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 396 FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest B6 2594 FLL 18:55 → BWI 21:23 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 396 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 06:25	BWI 08:55	4%	1%	0.9%	98%
WN 1651 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 08:00	BWI 10:30	7%	2%	0.8%	83%
WN 1853 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:45	BWI 13:15	15%	3%	0.9%	73%
F9 4412 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:28	BWI 12:10	22%	7%	1.5%	62%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 14:15	BWI 16:45	22%	9%	1.0%	57%
WN 4670 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 16:45	BWI 19:20	28%	12%	1.6%	56%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	31%	12%	1.4%	52%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 17:50	BWI 20:20	35%	13%	1.6%	15%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	42%	20%	4.3%	36%
B6 2594 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:55	BWI 21:23	44%	21%	2.8%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON