Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2087 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 2087 FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 1149 FLL 18:59 → CLT 21:09 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2087 American Flight history →	FLL 07:44	CLT 09:53	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 1865 American Flight history →	FLL 10:06	CLT 12:10	11%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 1877 American Flight history →	FLL 13:55	CLT 16:08	17%	7%	0.9%	76%
AA 1875 American Flight history →	FLL 16:12	CLT 18:26	20%	9%	1.4%	69%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	FLL 19:41	CLT 21:52	22%	9%	1.8%	58%
B6 749 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	CLT 14:15	30%	11%	1.3%	61%
F9 1984 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:54	CLT 21:07	43%	16%	3.3%	65%
B6 2149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLT 23:05	46%	19%	4.7%	41%
B6 1149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:59	CLT 21:09	48%	19%	2.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON