Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 645 at 19:45, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 645 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 19:45	CMH 22:30	33%	12%	1.4%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 12:48 → CMH 15:28UA 3554 · flown by Republic	8h 26m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	7h 27m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874	2h 35m St Louis	STL 09:55 → CMH 12:15WN 3902	6h 35m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	6h 25m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	7h 05m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 11:05 → CMH 13:15WN 114	7h 20m	100%	88%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 30m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa	9h 05m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → CMH 12:10WN 4524	5h 45m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON