Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2774 at 12:21 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2774 FLL 12:21 → CVG 14:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest F9 1477 FLL 17:41 → CVG 20:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2774 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:21	CVG 14:53	15%	6%	1.0%	75%
G4 1992 Allegiant Flight history →	FLL 09:49	CVG 12:22	18%	8%	0.8%	91%
DL 661 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:22	CVG 21:57	24%	9%	1.8%	72%
F9 1477 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:41	CVG 20:25	40%	14%	2.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON