Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4819 at 13:00, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4819 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DAL 14:50	27%	8%	0.9%	28%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874	2h 25m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	6h 45m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	4h 58m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 30m Houston	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	5h 10m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	7h 20m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50WN 4638	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 12:20 → DAL 14:15WN 5046	5h 40m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 51m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 07m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	FLL 08:00 → BWI 10:30WN 1651	3h 45m Baltimore	BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932	9h 15m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	FLL 17:35 → HOU 19:15WN 4230	1h 15m Houston	HOU 20:30 → DAL 21:40WN 54	5h 05m	63%	45%
Southwest Details →	FLL 19:10 → STL 21:00WN 1875	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	5h 20m	57%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON