Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1480 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day B6 1480 FLL 06:30 → DCA 09:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1880 FLL 18:47 → DCA 21:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	9%	3%	1.1%	92%
WN 2535 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 11:40	DCA 14:20	18%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 1873 American Flight history →	FLL 11:41	DCA 14:14	20%	7%	1.0%	66%
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:42	DCA 14:15	24%	11%	1.2%	69%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	35%	18%	4.3%	57%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	40%	19%	2.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON