Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1311 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1311 FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1417 FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1311 United Flight history →	FLL 08:00	DEN 10:18	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 4264 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 08:50	DEN 11:00	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
UA 1417 United Flight history →	FLL 15:30	DEN 18:18	23%	8%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:15 → MCI 07:15WN 1540	1h 10m Kansas City	MCI 08:25 → DEN 09:10WN 3169	5h 55m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	6h 04m	93%	78%
Southwest Details →	FLL 06:10 → MCO 07:15WN 4824	55m Orlando	MCO 08:10 → DEN 10:00WN 2629	5h 50m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON