Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1232 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 1232 FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1232 American Flight history →	FLL 06:01	DFW 08:16	5%	2%	1.1%	92%
AA 2558 American Flight history →	FLL 07:01	DFW 09:16	7%	2%	1.1%	92%
B6 979 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:35	DFW 10:44	15%	4%	0.9%	95%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	FLL 11:43	DFW 13:55	18%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	FLL 15:04	DFW 17:22	27%	10%	1.4%	56%
B6 2182 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:00	DFW 15:15	28%	12%	1.1%	64%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	FLL 16:26	DFW 18:39	29%	10%	1.9%	37%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	FLL 17:29	DFW 19:49	32%	10%	2.3%	44%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	FLL 19:11	DFW 21:23	34%	9%	2.9%	30%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	41%	14%	5.0%	68%
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:50	DFW 21:06	51%	16%	2.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON