Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2631 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2631 FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2290 FLL 18:35 → DTW 21:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2631 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:00	DTW 08:56	4%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:27	DTW 14:26	15%	4%	0.8%	83%
F9 2008 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:48	DTW 12:55	18%	6%	1.2%	54%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:40	DTW 19:46	19%	9%	1.3%	70%
B6 790 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	DTW 15:10	21%	8%	1.1%	77%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:10	DTW 23:18	24%	11%	2.6%	64%
B6 2290 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	DTW 21:45	31%	14%	2.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON