Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2603 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 2603 FLL 06:55 → EWR 09:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2603 United Flight history →	FLL 06:55	EWR 09:59	4%	2%	1.1%	96%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	FLL 07:55	EWR 10:59	5%	3%	1.0%	96%
B6 306 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	EWR 09:27	10%	3%	1.3%	85%
UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 11:11	EWR 14:15	15%	8%	1.3%	90%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:46	EWR 15:50	21%	10%	1.1%	78%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:52	EWR 18:59	26%	16%	1.5%	61%
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:24	EWR 20:35	26%	15%	2.0%	69%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:30	EWR 14:29	31%	11%	1.8%	65%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	43%	21%	4.1%	51%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	46%	21%	2.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON