Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1861 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1861 FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4583 FLL 20:10 → HOU 21:45 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1861 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:00	HOU 06:30	7%	2%	1.9%	83%
WN 4230 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 17:35	HOU 19:15	43%	15%	1.6%	42%
WN 4583 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:10	HOU 21:45	47%	17%	2.3%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON