tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: G4 3484 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 3484 Allegiant Flight history → FLL 07:20 IND 10:12 12% 5% 0.9% 95%
WN 1863 Southwest Flight history → FLL 21:25 IND 00:10 30% 13% 2.7% 42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 5h 10m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 2h 05m Chicago MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877 6h 10m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → FLL 06:55 → EWR 09:59UA 2603 1h 55m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 12m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 1h 26m Dulles IAD 12:40 → IND 14:29UA 3402 · flown by Republic 5h 49m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752 3h 17m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 8h 01m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 03m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396 1h 50m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960 6h 05m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 10m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 8h 25m 98% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → FLL 17:35 → HOU 19:15WN 4230 1h 40m Houston HOU 20:55 → IND 00:20 +1WN 1989 6h 45m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:29 → DFW 19:49AA 1862 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58AA 766 6h 29m 65% 43%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 18:20 → MDW 20:25WN 1870 1h 00m Chicago MDW 21:25 → IND 23:30WN 3190 5h 10m 60% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON