Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 514 at 18:45, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 514 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:45	ISP 21:44	37%	14%	1.7%	75%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Islip on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396	1h 45m Baltimore	BWI 10:40 → ISP 11:50WN 4691	5h 25m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	FLL 08:00 → BWI 10:30WN 1651	2h 50m Baltimore	BWI 13:20 → ISP 14:30WN 966	6h 30m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	FLL 10:45 → BWI 13:15WN 1853	2h 50m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → ISP 17:15WN 4126	6h 30m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	FLL 16:45 → BWI 19:20WN 4670	3h 05m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → ISP 23:40WN 4321	6h 55m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON