Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1802 FLL 18:35 → JFK 21:39 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2165 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:06	JFK 10:00	5%	2%	1.3%	90%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:01	JFK 10:00	8%	3%	1.1%	95%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:28	JFK 11:26	14%	5%	1.0%	72%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:12	JFK 13:59	17%	5%	1.4%	72%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:06	JFK 12:04	18%	7%	1.1%	64%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:29	JFK 18:48	24%	10%	1.5%	72%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	JFK 23:05	24%	11%	2.8%	59%
B6 602 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:57	JFK 14:54	24%	10%	1.3%	66%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 22:15	JFK 01:18	32%	15%	3.4%	64%
B6 1802 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	JFK 21:39	43%	18%	2.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON