Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–52%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 572 FLL 20:15 → LGA 23:14 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2133 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:00	LGA 09:57	5%	3%	1.4%	94%
B6 1072 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:10	LGA 09:03	9%	3%	1.3%	92%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:29	LGA 14:24	18%	7%	1.5%	70%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	FLL 12:04	LGA 15:04	22%	8%	1.2%	68%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:38	LGA 13:32	23%	8%	1.4%	83%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	LGA 23:02	28%	11%	3.0%	62%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:05	LGA 18:19	28%	10%	1.7%	68%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:52	LGA 14:45	29%	12%	1.3%	58%
AA 2808 American Flight history →	FLL 17:49	LGA 20:49	41%	13%	2.2%	33%
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:51	LGA 19:50	47%	17%	2.2%	74%worse than usual
B6 1172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LGA 21:35	51%	20%	2.5%	54%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:15	LGA 23:14	52%	20%	4.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON