Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 15m Houston	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	7h 00m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	FLL 10:45 → BNA 12:00WN 4029	2h 35m Nashville	BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427	9h 05m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	FLL 08:50 → DEN 11:00WN 4264	2h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259	9h 00m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	FLL 09:25 → AUS 11:15WN 1848	2h 00m Austin	AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915	7h 45m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	FLL 13:00 → DAL 14:50WN 4819	3h 40m Dallas	DAL 18:30 → LGB 19:35WN 1336	9h 35m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	FLL 10:15 → MDW 12:15WN 1869	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413	8h 15m	86%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON