tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1540 at 05:15, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1540 Southwest Flight history → FLL 05:15 MCI 07:15 5% 1% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 1h 41m Dulles IAD 12:55 → MCI 14:45UA 3528 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50WN 4638 1h 40m Nashville BNA 12:30 → MCI 14:10WN 5063 5h 35m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 2h 25m Chicago MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529 6h 50m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16AA 1232 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471 5h 15m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 8h 18m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908 5h 43m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874 50m St Louis STL 08:10 → MCI 09:15WN 3943 4h 35m 90% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → FLL 15:15 → BNA 16:35WN 1715 55m Nashville BNA 17:30 → MCI 19:10WN 562 4h 55m 69% 55%
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:07 → PHX 18:44AA 441 48m Phoenix PHX 19:32 → MCI 00:13 +1AA 623 8h 06m 61% 44%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 20:10 → HOU 21:45WN 4583 1h 10m Houston HOU 22:55 → MCI 00:55 +1WN 2030 5h 45m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON