Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4824 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4824 FLL 06:10 → MCO 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1948 FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4824 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 06:10	MCO 07:15	3%	1%	1.0%	96%
B6 2948 JetBlue	FLL 07:20	MCO 08:29	10%	4%	10.7%	no record
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:00	MCO 11:08	17%	5%	15.9%	76%
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	43%	21%	9.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON